Market Update In July

These numbers are for the single-family detached segment.

In July 2022 the rapid rise in interest rates had caused panic to rush through the market and contract ratios had collapsed from much higher June 2022 levels. The low to mid price ranges were worst affected.

By July 2023 the market had recovered to a remarkable degree and the low supply drove contract ratios back to hotter levels, especially at the lowest end of the market.

In July 2024, we are back to a softer market, with supply and demand in balance. Some price ranges are stronger than they were 2 years ago - for example Under $300K and $400K - $500K, but most are weaker than in 2022.

We note that the segment over $10m is unique in that it is hotter than it was last year and the year before. But between $800K and $10M the luxury price ranges are much cooler than in both prior years.

On July 3rd the affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's June filings and here is what we found:

• There were 6,633 closed transactions, down 13% from 7,665 in June 2023 and down 15% from May.

• There were 1,584 closed new homes, down 4% from 1,657 in June 2023 but up 1% from May.

• There were 5,049 closed re-sale transactions, down 16% from 6,008 in June 2023 and down 20% from May.

• The overall median sales price in June was $475,000, up 0.9% from June 2023 and unchanged from May.

• The re-sale median sales price was $465,000, up 3.3% from June 2023 and up 1.1% from May.

• The new home median sales price was $503,934, down 2.9% from June 2023 and down 3.2% from May.

Closing counts look very poor when compared with last month, as well as with a year ago. New homes closings were slightly weaker, falling 4% compared to a year ago, but re-sales were down by 16%.

New home market share bounced back to almost 24% in June 2024 up from 20% last month.

Prices were surprisingly weak for new homes, down almost 3% from a year ago. Re-sales managed to show a rise of 3.3% for the year. Overall we see a rise in the median sales price of under 1%, so below the rate of inflation.

These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.

As of July 1 the number of single-family detached homes available for sale in active ARMLS listings has increased by 57% in Greater Phoenix since this time last year. This additional supply in the face of chronically depressed demand has given rise to a weaker market which is currently very close to balance. Despite this, some segments are still seller's markets while other strongly favor buyers.

There are some price ranges which have seen larger increases in supply. These are:

• Below $300K - up by 94%

• From $300K and $350K - up by 64%

• From $400K to $450K - up by 76%

• From $500K to $600K - up by 77%

• From $1.5M to $2M - up by 64%

• From $5M to $7.5M - up by 59%

The lowest increases have been in the following price ranges:

• From $700K to $800K - up by 31%

• From $2M to $3M - up by 28%

• From $7.5M to $10M - up by 35%

This Information has been provided by Cromford Report. If you have any questions we would enjoy a conversation with you about your local market or your house in particular. Feel free to text, call or email us.